The European dilemma, to continue or to play

The Western world has dominated international relations. Ever since the appearance of capitalism, ”The West” has dictated the main mechanisms and laws that govern international conduct. Colonialism sealed the fate of many peoples while Woodrow Wilson reshaped the very notion of a free nation. The Marshal Plan shaped our view of the post-world war world in a way that is still visible today in the EU. The Western World, with its most evident incarnation of USA-EU military partnership, has fostered the strongest military alliance, NATO, the strongest economic force and has set the tone, principles, laws, and values for the entire globe.  

Yet 30 years on from its most glorious victory, the fall of communism, this world order has found itself contested by China and, episodically, by Russia. This contestation has seen many declinations in the form of military, economic, and even ideologic affairs (it has been said that authoritarian regimes have had a ”firmer” answer in the face of the pandemic). For the first time in a long time, the mechanisms governing the ”balance of power” have apparently started to produce effects of consequence for the establishment generically named The West.

Naturally, the rise of China and Russia has been quickened by the escalating dissensions between USA and the EU. These have been well exacerbated by the Angela Merkel phone scandal and have continued with tensions generated by the North Stream 2 project and, apparently hit rock bottom with the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Naturally, the American First model of conducting Trump Politics has tensioned relations with most European Union member states. Brexit was another clue that EU-USA destinies would be going on different paths.

Within this ”Ice Age” of EU-USA relations, Russia has dug further in deepening its relations with Germany, while China went all in its efforts to seduce, Hungary, Italy, and Greece. 

Russia and China figured out that attacking the EU-USA relationship is a core move against the current international establishment. Therefore, both states have worked for decades in order to undermine transatlantic relations, by stimulating Berlin-Moscow economic relations or by fueling the French military ego (and consequent anti-American and anti-NATO sentiment) running wild on the hallways of the Elysee.

Actions streaming from China or Russia seem to have a common source. However, in reality, they serve very different objectives, by operating on quite different channels. A truly functional Balance of Power alliance between Russia and China does not exist. Their actions are however overlapped, in a very punctual manner, on specific themes. Most of the time, these two counter players have their own interests to look after in Europe.

The new Curtain

The European Union is under siege and, apparently, more divided than ever. The economic games played by China and the tactic performance of Russian interests, often put into play by proxy, have already shaped an image of a weak European Union, often lacking perspective.  The old ideological conflict placing nationalism and globalism on the opposite sides of a truly representative cleavage is now overlapping the old Iron Curtain scheme. This is obvious in the way the European member states have positioned themselves in regard to Hungary’s anti LGBTQ law.

What is genuinely interesting about this reshaping of old theoretical walls is the fact that Europe is undergoing a process of replicating the ongoing ideological conflict raging in the United States. As always, when dealing with radical arguments, both teams are right, and both are terribly wrong.

Viktor Orban and the Visegrad group seek to promote the vision of a European Project based on national states with full sovereignty. Of course, the issue with this sort of project is that it is equivalent with the destruction of the EU. Turning the EU into a mere alliance of states inconvenient for both Russia and China, since this means that the common Western EU project, of promoting a union of shared values and ideology, has failed, which leaves way for the reincarnation of Old Europe – easy to command, riddled with conflict and war.  

Europe has to face more tangible threats than ideology. The lack of proper military capacities in the face of dwindling relations with Turkey and the United States signals weakness. France, with all its efforts of portraying itself as the defender of Europe, is not at all a believable option. Because it lacks a sufficiently large army but also because France cannot guarantee peace of mind to the countries out East, in the improbable event of direct military conflict with Russia. Europe has, for an exceptionally long time, relied on military support from the United States. This may make some wonder if the European Union is or is not a great power, since it ”boroughs” the military potential of a third party. Europe undoubtedly remains an economic and, even more so, a cultural power irradiating values across the globe. But without a military power to match, it has remained far behind the United States, China and Russia.

The future of the European Union is played in Paris and Berlin

The new Biden Administration has been viewed by Brussels as a breath of fresh air. And even if this is the case, one has to take into account that the Trump phenomenon is not something intrinsically linked to Donald Trump. It is a mechanism set in place and validated, electorally, by a significant portion of the American citizens. So, to be sure, Trump’s major defeat and subsequent withdrawal should not be confused with the disappearance of his America First agenda.

So even if the European Union is looking forward for more relaxed diplomatic dialogue with Washington, it is clear that some continuity will be there. There are obvious signs to be seen already. The EU-China positioning will cause tensions and the 2% for defense is likely a win that the US will not want to step back on, since USA efforts are clearly disproportionately bigger in terms of NATO participation (it’s not just about the money, it’s about technology, military outreach, and presence). Biden is forced to keep addressing the uncomfortable China issue in Asia, where Beijing is growing in influence. In Europe, Washington will forever find friends in The Baltics, in Poland, and in Romania, states which are sure of the fact that American security guarantees are the only viable deterrents in the face of increased Russian assertiveness. Regardless of how Germany and France will play their hands, the US has firm support among EU states.

We should also remember that elections will be ongoing in Germany and France. The strategy adopted by the leaders in Paris and Berlin will show us if the European Union will bet on the band-wagoning game or if we’ll witness a new design of USA influence across Europe. If the European Union will play the Chinese or Russian card, the project will most probably drown in dissolution. Because the diverge interests of all three great players – USA, Russia, and China, will pull in irreconcilable directions, thus breaking the European fabric. Each power will seek to secure its zone of influence and the EU will become the mere turf in a foreign fight for dominance.

The EU has a tough decision to make. If it pushes for the continuation of the status quo, it knows the ropes: it will be safe, dependent upon American protection, but also free to occasionally play its cards when needed. If it decides to play the contender card, then she will have to deal with increasing nationalism, a strong sense of division, and a powerful conflictual perspective. Of course, the European nations have been decent at this game too. But even in the age of (re)nationalism, populations are weary in the face of war and fall-out conflict.

Reference to this article appears in Adevarul.ro

A new ocean has appeared on the world map. The end of a century-old dispute

The National Geographic Society of the United States announced the official recognition of the fifth ocean – the South, washing the shores of Antarctica. This decision is the result of many years of research efforts. So in the XXI century – although, it would seem, the era of major geographical discoveries is already far in the past – the map of the world has changed.

History of the issue

For the first time the designation “Southern Ocean” was used by the Spanish conquistador Vasco Nunez de Balboa at the beginning of the 16th century, describing the cold currents coming from the south to the shores of South America. Later, Antarctic expeditions equipped ships “to the Southern Ocean”. But officially it appeared, perhaps, only on maps published in Australia – all waters located south of the Australian continent were attributed to it.

The debate over whether to recognize the fifth ocean or not flared up in 1921, the year of the creation of the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), designed to coordinate internationally shipping and trade in the oceans. In 1937, the term “Southern Ocean” was officially enshrined in the publications of the IHO.

Scientists supported this – after all, the waters adjacent to Antarctica and united by the Antarctic circumpolar current have a special specificity. In terms of physicochemical and biological characteristics, they are not similar to the other three oceans, merging in the southern circumpolar zone.

However, in 1953, the International Hydrographic Organization canceled its own decision due to the impossibility of drawing clear boundaries of the Southern Ocean. And therefore, to regulate navigation and commercial activities within its limits.

Scientists disagreed: they increasingly mentioned this term in scientific publications, emphasized the uniqueness of the Southern Ocean and the importance of a separate study of its hydrological and biosystems. As a result, in 2000, the IHO again adopted the classification, according to which the oceans were divided into five parts. But in order to make changes to all geographical atlases and textbooks, ratification at the level of official departments of the leading countries of the world was required.

The key was the recognition of the Southern Ocean this year by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Even earlier, in 1999, the term was coined by the American Board of Geographical Names. And now the point has been set – on June 8, World Oceans Day, the National Geographic Society of the United States announced: from now on, the Southern Ocean will be marked on all maps.

The boundaries of the new ocean

The ancient Greeks understood the ocean as the world’s greatest river, which surrounds the land from all sides. It was named after the mythological titan Ocean – the son of Uranus and Gaia, that is, Heaven and Earth, brother and husband Tethys, the goddess of the primeval waters.

From the point of view of geographical science, there is only one ocean on Earth – the World, global water envelope. Everything else is its parts, and how many there are depends on the selection criteria. The simplest and most obvious is the location between the continents, that is, limited land mass on all sides. On this basis, the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans are classified as oceans.

No less important from the point of view of scientists – hydrographers, oceanologists, biologists – and other criteria: the presence of its own water circulation system, their physicochemical characteristics, the species composition of flora and fauna, the scheme of interaction with the atmosphere. And in this regard, the Southern Ocean is an absolutely independent part of the hydrosphere, although it does not have a clearly delineated northern border by islands or continents.

The International Hydrographic Organization, which recognized the Southern Ocean in 2000, determined its territory conditionally – from the coast of Antarctica to the north to the 60th parallel of the south latitude. This decision was taken by a majority vote for formal reasons – the 60th parallel does not cross land anywhere, and it is within these limits that the United Nations Antarctic Treaty operates.

It is clear that geographers were not satisfied with this approach. In their opinion, the northern boundary of the Southern Ocean should be drawn along the Antarctic Polar Front, within which the cold waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current circulate. This zone surrounding Antarctica is also called the Antarctic Convergence.

On its northern border, located between the 48th and 61st parallels south latitude, the cold waters of Antarctica flowing northward meet with the warmer Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Heading south, the convergence boundary is precisely defined by the sudden drop in sea water temperature from 5.6 degrees Celsius to below two degrees Celsius. The Antarctic Convergence Line separates two regions that differ in climate and biodiversity.

The boundaries of the Southern Ocean are no less clearly manifested in the bottom topography – in the form of underwater uplifts practically along the entire Antarctic Polar Front.

Areas along the Antarctic Polar Front are extremely rich in fish and marine mammals. The dense cold waters drain here under the warm ones, and the nutrient-rich, rising deep streams form a favorable habitat for Antarctic krill and other marine organisms.

The Atlantic circumpolar current, which moves in a circle from west to east, crossing all meridians, is the most powerful on Earth, it carries a hundred times more water than all the rivers of the world. Scientists believe that it originated 34 million years ago, when Antarctica separated from South America. Moving cold waters along the bottom from Antarctica to the north, it draws in surface warm waters from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean into the polar region. It is the most important element of the global “conveyor belt” of currents, which determines the heat transfer scheme and regulates the climate on the planet.

Diagram of ocean currents in Antarctica. The boundaries of the Southern Ocean are determined by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which moves from west to east

The area of ​​the new ocean is 20.3 million square kilometers: this is approximately two territories of the United States. It is larger than the Artic Ocean and the fourth largest in the world after the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian.

The average depth is 3270 meters, and the lowest point of the bottom is at 8264 meters, in the South Sandwich Trench.

Cash remains in vogue in Switzerland

Cash remains the preferred method of payment in Switzerland, although during the pandemic wealthy citizens increasingly turned to card payments and payment applications. That’s according to a study by the Swiss Central Bank, quoted by Reuters. About 43% of one-off payments for purchases in supermarkets and restaurants are made in cash, which remains the most popular payment method in Switzerland, according to the study. However, cash has lost its position, as its share amounted to 70% in 2017.

“In terms of the number of payments made, cash continues to be the most commonly used payment instrument by the Swiss population,” said Fritz Zurbrug, vice president of the Swiss Central Bank.

“Compared to 2017, their share has decreased significantly. The pandemic has given additional impetus to this transition from cash to cashless payment methods,” he added.

One third of the payments are made by debit cards, which is an increase compared to the situation four years ago, when 22% of payments in the country were through this method. Credit cards have also increased in popularity over the period. The increase in contactless payments contributes to the rise of card payments.

Mobile payment applications such as Twint and Paypal account for 5% of transactions in Switzerland, while in 2017 their share was almost zero.

“Cashless payment methods have begun to be considered, at least in part, as easier to use than cash,” according to a study conducted in August-November 2020. The growth in online shopping has fueled the popularity of maps and apps during the pandemic, as well as the fact that consumers are shopping more from grocery stores during the pandemic.

As the Swiss slowly withdraw from cash, banknotes in circulation are growing. This suggests that cash is used to store value, according to the Swiss central bank.

The report states that people in the country have stored about 10 billion francs or 12% of banknotes in circulation on rainy days.

Nearly 70% of the population keeps cash at home or in a safe, with most (77%) holding up to 1,000 francs to meet unforeseen expenses or to store value in the long run.

Negative interest rates of the Swiss central bank are not a factor, as most people are not directly affected by them.